Fashion and beauty magazines have played a critical role in the historic methods of fashion marketing, and you might expect that to change as consumers embrace the Internet. But, are consumers abandoning fashion magazines in favor of the web?
While we don’t have enough data specifically on fashion magazines, we do have a report on 10 years of general magazine circulation from the Magazine Publishers of America. Not surprisingly, the report concludes that “Magazines hit on all cylinders”, “Magazines ring the register” and “Magazines cause traffic jams.” Clearly, at least to the wagazine industry trade association, your business can’t succeed without coverage in a magazine, whatever your business is.
The report demonstrates strong US magazine sales between 1997 and 2007, in the range of 350M to 380M:
So magazine sales took a strong hit after the dotcom bust, but recovered well after that. However, this graph does not show the current economic crisis, which probably has a decline similar to 1999-2003. More importantly, the graph does not adjust for population growth. Here is a graph of the magazine sales divided by US population:
This view shows a moderate decline of 10%, although we should probably expect that the data for 2008 and 2009, with a worsening economy and a growing population, would show a more substantial decline. Considering that 525 magazines failed in 2008 and only 335 launched that decline is virtually certain. The WSJ reported that for the second half of 2008 single copy magazine sales were down 11%. What is more interesting is that there was no improvement in the ratio during the economic boom times from 2002 to 2007.
Since the decline in the Sales/Population ratio is only 10% it is hard to draw any strong conclusions, but the data does point to a decline in the influence in magazines, and if the same trend in the graphs occurs after the current recession, magazines will see another significant erosion of influence in the next few years.
Our guess is that Magazines are going to have significantly reduced circulations over the next 5 years, paralleling the problems in the newspaper industry, but on a reduced scale. Magazines are more frivolously fun than newspapers, and for fashionistas looking for new trends, they are both engaging and easy to use. The major fashion magazines will have multi-million print circulations for years, but getting coverage in them won’t be mandatory for the success of a new apparel line.
( If you are interested in hearing from an expert on magazines, and their publishing model, visit Mr. Magazine. Samir Husni’s blog is what we hope Retailing Together to be for the retail industry. )
